Confidence is a form of personal prediction that takes into account both your feelings and the facts. You do have choices about how confident to be but choosing to be overconfident is rarely in your interest. Well-calibrated, adaptive confidence is what we should strive for. How optimistic should you be about an uncertain future? What justifies your confidence in something amorphous and subjective like your attractiveness or sense of humor?
Don Moore answers these questions by exploring the ways confidence behaves in real life, how to avoid overconfidence and under-confidence and how one can maintain well-calibrated confidence.
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